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The ECB’s September Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while three- and five-year expectations were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth and higher unemployment, alongside faster income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank said on 23 October that consumers’ median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while expectations for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. Longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged, leaving the survey’s picture mixed: near-term price pressure edged up, but expectations three and five years ahead held steady.
Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5%, the ECB reported. Expected inflation three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and the five-year expectation stayed at 2.5%. Uncertainty around inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East, according to the release.
Respondents anticipated somewhat faster income and spending growth. Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.1% from 1.0%, while expected nominal spending growth increased to 3.7% from 3.6%. Perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months also rose, to 5.3% from 5.2%.
On the economic outlook, expected growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3% from 11.0%. Consumers expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the coming year, up from 3.4%, while expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%. The ECB also reported that more households, on balance, said credit access had tightened and expected it to tighten further.
Households See Higher Costs and Job Risks
The September results offer a snapshot of how euro-area households view prices, employment, borrowing and spending. The combination of slightly higher short-term inflation expectations and weaker growth expectations matters to the ECB’s monitoring of household decisions and economic conditions. The survey is one input into policy analysis, not a forecast or a decision by the central bank.
The differences across income groups also point to uneven household pressures. Respondents in the lowest income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the highest quintile, and they expected a higher unemployment rate. They also anticipated greater home-price growth and higher mortgage rates. These are reported expectations, not evidence that every household faces the same costs or outcomes.
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How the ECB Survey Is Built
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of about 19,000 adults in 11 euro-area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The ECB says the results complement other data sources used for policy analysis. The survey’s results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff.
The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026. Unless otherwise indicated, figures in the release refer to a 2% winsorised mean, a statistical method that limits the influence of extreme observations. The ECB publishes aggregate results for the euro area and individual countries each month; underlying microdata are available through its survey resources.
““Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.””
— European Central Bank
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Limits of the September Readings
The survey records what respondents perceived and expected during the fieldwork period; it does not establish what inflation, growth, unemployment or housing costs will ultimately do. The release does not identify the causes of the month-to-month changes, and the reported figures alone cannot show whether households’ expectations will alter spending or borrowing decisions.
The ECB said inflation-expectation uncertainty remained above its pre-conflict level but did not provide a numerical measure for that comparison in the release. Its summary also says credit tightening reports increased, but gives no percentage-point figure in the supplied results. The survey covers 11 euro-area countries, so its findings should not be read as a direct measure of every household across Europe.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB has scheduled publication of the October survey results for 27 November 2026. Those figures will show whether the September movements in short-term inflation expectations, growth and unemployment expectations, and reported credit conditions continued or reversed. Until then, the September survey remains a measure of consumer views gathered in late August and September, rather than a statement of the ECB’s next policy move.
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Key Questions
What did consumers expect inflation to be over the next year?
The median expectation rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, according to the ECB.
Did longer-term inflation expectations change?
No. The median expectation was unchanged at 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead.
What did respondents expect for growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months decreased to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate for that period rose to 11.3% from 11.0%.
When will the next ECB consumer survey results be released?
The ECB scheduled the October results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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